The spreadsheets are closed. The weigh-ins are done. It’s time to lock in the tickets.
We have spent the last week breaking down UFC 325 from every mathematical angle. We looked at the Over 35 Curse facing Volkanovski, we analyzed the Chin Durability of Jamie Mullarkey, and we even built a Parlay Strategy to hedge our exposure.
Now, we strip away the “what ifs” and give you the bottom line.
This Sydney card is unique. It features massive favorites (-1000 range) mixed with coin-flip bangers. To make money here, you can’t just pick winners; you have to pick paths to victory.
Here are the official Main Card Money predictions for every single fight scheduled for Saturday night (or Sunday afternoon, for the Aussies).
🏆 The Main Event: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski via Decision
This is the classic “Head vs. Heart” battle. The data screams danger for Volkanovski—he is 37, fighting a younger, faster finisher in Diego Lopes who dropped him in their first fight. However, we are banking on Fight IQ. In the first fight, Volk was surprised by Lopes’ speed. In the rematch, Volkanovski historically makes better adjustments than anyone in the sport (see: Holloway 2 vs. Holloway 3). Expect Volk to chop the legs, clinch against the fence to drain Lopes’ gas tank, and win a sweaty, tactical decision on home soil.
- Confidence Level: Medium
- The Bet: Volkanovski Decision (+110) or Over 3.5 Rounds (-150).
🔥 The Co-Main: Hooker vs. Saint Denis
The Pick: Benoît Saint Denis via Submission (Round 2)
We love Dan Hooker. He is a warrior. But stylistically, this is a nightmare. Hooker struggles against chain-wrestlers who refuse to give him space (think Islam Makhachev). Benoît Saint Denis (“BSD”) doesn’t strike to score; he strikes to enter grappling range. Hooker will have moments on the feet, but BSD’s relentless pressure will eventually force a scramble. When Hooker gets tired, he exposes his neck. We expect BSD to drag him down and find a choke in the second round.
- Confidence Level: High
- The Bet: BSD by Submission (+150).
🥊 The Striker’s Delight: Fiziev vs. Ruffy
The Pick: Rafael Fiziev via Decision
As we detailed in our Feature Breakdown, this is a “Levels” trap. The public is infatuated with Mauricio Ruffy because he looks like Conor McGregor and knocks out lower-tier guys. But he has never faced a striker with the speed, head movement, and body-kicking game of Rafael Fiziev. Fiziev is not a stepping stone. He is a brick wall. Expect “Ataman” to school the prospect for 15 minutes.
- Confidence Level: High
- The Bet: Fiziev Moneyline (+102).
👟 The Heavyweight Wildcard: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira
The Pick: Tai Tuivasa via KO (Round 1)
This is our “Contrarian Special.” The entire world has written off Tai Tuivasa. The books have him as a massive underdog (+260). But Tallison Teixeira is green, and he leaves his chin high in the air. Tuivasa is fighting for his career in front of a home crowd. We are betting on desperation. We believe Tuivasa chops the giant’s legs early, closes the distance, and lands one massive overhand right to blow the roof off the arena.
- Confidence Level: Low (High Risk/High Reward)
- The Bet: Tuivasa KO (+300) or Under 1.5 Rounds (-270).
⭐️ The Showcase: Salkilld vs. Mullarkey
The Pick: Quillan Salkilld via KO/TKO
There is a reason this line moved from -160 to -1000. Jamie Mullarkey’s durability has fallen off a cliff. The UFC moved this to the Main Card to showcase Salkilld. Expect the prospect to be sharp, precise, and finding the finish.
- Confidence Level: Lock
- The Bet: Salkilld Inside the Distance (-145).
🩸 The Prelims: Where the Value Lives
The Main Card has the names, but the Prelims often have the best betting lines. Here is our breakdown of the undercard value spots.
| Fight | The Pick | The Logic |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Tafa vs. Billy Elekana | Billy Elekana | Junior Tafa has heavy hands but zero grappling defense and a suspect gas tank. Elekana is the more well-rounded athlete. We expect Elekana to survive the early blitz and take over. |
| Jacob Malkoun vs. Torrez Finney | Torrez Finney | This is our Prelim Dog of the Night. Malkoun is a talented grappler but has a “glass chin” (he gets KO’d by jabs). Finney is a tank with explosive power. One clean shot from Finney ends this. |
| Cam Rowston vs. Cody Brundage | Cam Rowston | Never bet your own money on Cody Brundage. He has all the talent in the world but consistently finds ways to lose fights he should win. We are fading Brundage and backing the local fighter to out-work him. |
| Micallef vs. Elliott | Oban Elliott | The “Welsh Gangster” isn’t a finisher, but he is a grinder. Micallef is solid, but Elliott’s cardio and wrestling pace usually win ugly decisions. |
📝 The “Cheat Sheet” Summary
Taking a screenshot for fight night? Here is the rapid-fire list.
| Fight | The Pick | Method | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volkanovski vs. Lopes | Volkanovski | Decision | Medium |
| Hooker vs. Saint Denis | Saint Denis | Submission | High |
| Fiziev vs. Ruffy | Fiziev | Decision | High |
| Tuivasa vs. Teixeira | Tuivasa | KO/TKO | Low (Value) |
| Salkilld vs. Mullarkey | Salkilld | KO/TKO | LOCK |
| Tafa vs. Elekana | Elekana | Decision | Medium |
| Rowston vs. Brundage | Rowston | Decision | Medium |
| Malkoun vs. Finney | Finney | KO/TKO | Medium |
| Micallef vs. Elliott | Elliott | Decision | High |
Ready to fire? We are placing all our action at BetUS this week because they gave us the best odds on the Tuivasa prop.
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