Welcome to the Sydney Homecoming.
UFC 325 isn’t just another pay-per-view; it is a violent homecoming for Alexander Volkanovski and a “sink or swim” moment for half the roster. The card is stacked with heavy favorites, local heroes, and stylistic mismatches that scream “finish.”
For bettors, this presents a unique challenge. Betting straight moneylines on guys like Quillan Salkilld (-1000) or Benoît Saint Denis (-310) burns your bankroll with juice. The solution? Parlays.
We have crunched the consensus odds, analyzed the market movement, and built three distinct tickets for Saturday night depending on your risk tolerance. Whether you want a safe anchor, a balanced bankroll builder, or a chaotic lotto ticket, we have you covered.
🛡️ Option 1: The “Safe” Anchor (Conservative)
This ticket is designed for the bettor who wants to turn a 1.0 unit bet into 1.8 units without sweating bullets. We are taking the three most lopsided mismatches on the card and linking them together.
| Leg | Fight | Selection | Odds | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salkilld vs. Mullarkey | Quillan Salkilld | -1000 | The line movement here is historical. Salkilld opened at -160 and has been bet down to -1000. Jamie Mullarkey’s chin is compromised, and the UFC is serving him up on a platter for the rising prospect. It’s a “Free Square.” |
| 2 | Hooker vs. Saint Denis | Benoît Saint Denis | -310 | Dan Hooker is a legend, but he absorbs damage for a living. BSD is a pressure machine who averages over 1.3 takedowns per round. The youth, grappling, and pace advantages all sit heavily with the “God of War.” |
| 3 | Teixeira vs. Tuivasa | Tallison Teixeira | -325 | While our heart is with Tuivasa, the data favors the giant. Teixeira is 6’7″ with a 100% finish rate facing a guy on a 5-fight skid. The reach advantage alone makes this a nightmare for Bam Bam. |
Ticket Odds: ~+100 (Even Money) Verdict: Solid anchor for a multi-sport parlay.
⚖️ Option 2: The “Main Card Money” Ticket (Balanced)
This is our official play. We are mixing high-probability finishes with the sharpest “dog” value on the card. This ticket pays out around +400, striking the perfect balance between logic and reward.
Leg 1: Salkilld vs. Mullarkey – Salkilld by KO/TKO (-145)
Betting Salkilld at -1000 is boring. Betting him to finish a guy with a fading chin is value. Mullarkey’s defense crumbles under pressure, and Salkilld has been finding the button lately. We expect a mercy stoppage on the feet or ground-and-pound.
Leg 2: Teixeira vs. Tuivasa – Under 1.5 Rounds (-270)
This is the safest bet on the entire card. Both men have 90%+ finish rates. Tuivasa eats shots to land them, and Teixeira bombs early. Neither man has the patience to dance for 15 minutes. Someone is going to sleep in the first 7 minutes. It’s not a question of who, just when.
Leg 3: Rafael Fiziev vs. Maurício Ruffy – Fiziev ML (+102)
This line has flipped, and we are jumping all over it. Fiziev is now a slight underdog in some books, which is insane. He has the experience, the speed, and the Muay Thai pedigree to expose Ruffy. We are getting “Contender” skills at “Underdog” prices.
Leg 4: Volkanovski vs. Lopes – Over 3.5 Rounds (-150)
In a 5-round title fight, pace matters. Volkanovski is a master of distance and cardio. Lopes is dangerous early, but if Volk survives the first two rounds, this turns into a tactical chess match. Their first fight went the distance; we expect a similar grind here.
Ticket Odds: ~+408 Verdict: The best value on the board.
🚀 Option 3: The “Upset Hunter” (High Risk)
Do you believe in chaos? If you think the “Sydney Curse” is real and the favorites are frauds, this is the ticket for you. Small sprinkle only.
| Leg | Selection | Odds | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Lopes by Finish | +185 | Youth vs. Age. If Lopes wins, he doesn’t point-fight; he finds a neck or a chin. |
| 2 | Dan Hooker ML | +250 | BSD has a suspect gas tank. If Hooker survives the first round, he drags the Frenchman into deep waters. |
| 3 | Torrez Finney ML | +125 | A solid prelim dog. Finney’s power is a problem for Malkoun’s chin. |
| 4 | Billy Elekana by KO | -150 | Junior Tafa is fun, but his defense is porous. Elekana has heavy hands. |
Ticket Odds: ~+1100 Verdict: A fun lottery ticket for the main card sweat.
🏁 Final Verdict
This is one of those cards where the “Smart Money” is loud. The betting lines on favorites like Salkilld and Saint Denis have moved so drastically during fight week that betting them straight is almost impossible for the average bankroll.
That is why Option 2 (The Balanced Ticket) is our official play for UFC 325.
It gives us exposure to the inevitable violence in the Salkilld and Tuivasa fights, while capitalizing on the massive market over-correction on Rafael Fiziev. Getting a striker of Fiziev’s caliber at plus-money inside a parlay is the key to turning a good night into a great night.
Official Play: 0.5 Units on The Balanced Ticket (+408)
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