We are about to witness the ultimate “Immovable Object vs. Unstoppable Force” rematch.
When Diego Lopes steps into the octagon against Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 325, nobody is talking about the striking. We are all asking the same question: Can the Brazilian wonder-kid actually submit the Great Alexander in the rematch?
On paper, it sounds ridiculous. Volkanovski famously survived Brian Ortega’s “Guillotine from Hell” and neutralized Lopes in their first meeting at UFC 314 via decision. He is widely considered un-submittable.
But Diego Lopes isn’t Brian Ortega. He represents a new, chaotic generation of offensive Jiu-Jitsu that prioritizes breaking limbs over holding position.
Before you bet on the UFC 325 Main Event, you need to understand the accurate data behind the grappling mismatch.
🥋 The Tale of the Mat: Grappling Stats Comparison
Data sourced from UFC Stats (Jan 2026).
| Stat | Diego Lopes | Alex Volkanovski |
|---|---|---|
| BJJ Rank | Black Belt (Aggressive) | Black Belt (Defensive) |
| Submissions per 15m | 1.7 (Elite) | 0.2 |
| Takedown Defense | 67% | 70% |
| Grappling Style | “Submission over Position” | “Get Up or Ground & Pound” |
🌪️ The Lopes Threat: Organized Chaos
Diego Lopes does not grapple like a normal UFC fighter. A normal fighter secures a takedown, stabilizes, passes the guard, and then looks for a submission.
Lopes skips all the boring parts.
He throws up armbars from the bottom. He jumps for guillotines while standing. He attacks legs during scrambles. This “Chaos Style” is terrifying because it means he doesn’t need to win the wrestling exchange to win the fight. He just needs one messy scramble.
The Metric That Matters: Lopes attempts nearly 2 submissions per 15 minutes, which is nearly double the divisional average. He forces opponents to be perfect defensively for every second of the fight.
🛡️ The Volkanovski Wall: The “Anti-Jiu-Jitsu” King
We have to respect the resume. Alexander Volkanovski survived the deepest guillotine in title fight history against Brian Ortega at UFC 266. He turned purple, his eyes rolled back, and he still didn’t tap.
Volkanovski’s grappling isn’t about submissions; it’s about “Anti-Jiu-Jitsu.”
- Frame & Posture: He rarely leaves his neck exposed.
- Short Neck: Physically, he is a nightmare to strangle because he has no neck to grab.
- Cardio: He forces grapplers to work so hard for the sub that their arms burn out (the “Ortega Effect”).
🧪 The Analysis: Can Lopes Finish Him?
Here is the uncomfortable truth for Volkanovski backers: Brian Ortega was a positional grappler. Diego Lopes is a limb hunter.
In their first fight, Volkanovski won the decision by keeping the fight technical. But Lopes had moments where he threatened off his back. The danger for Volkanovski in the rematch is complacency. Volkanovski has a wide, heavy stance (from his rugby days). That makes him hard to take down, but it leaves his legs exposed for Imanari rolls or kneebars during scrambles.
The Verdict: If this stays a technical wrestling match like UFC 314, Volkanovski likely grinds out another decision. But if this becomes a scramble? Lopes remains the most dangerous grappler Volkanovski has ever faced in transition.
💰 How to Bet This Angle
This analysis points to two very specific betting props for UFC 325.
1. The “Hedge” Bet: Lopes by Submission (+450) If Lopes wins, it won’t be a decision. He doesn’t have the cardio or striking volume to outpoint Volk for 5 rounds in Sydney. If he pulls off the upset, it’s a shock submission. At +450, this is the only way to play the underdog given Volkanovski’s defense.
2. The “Smart” Bet: Fight Starts Round 3 (-225) Despite Lopes’ danger, Volkanovski is the smartest fighter in the game. He will likely spend the first 10 minutes keeping the fight standing, avoiding the ground at all costs. Expect a slow, tactical start as Volk respects the danger.
Official Lean: Volkanovski survives the early scares and grinds out a late finish or decision. But do not blink when they hit the mat.
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