If you read our Early Odds Analysis, you know where we stand on the Main Event.
We love the value on Justin Gaethje at +175. When a guy with nuclear power in his hands is a nearly 2-to-1 underdog against a fighter with questionable striking defense, you have to take the shot.
But let’s be real: Betting on Justin Gaethje is terrifying.
We know how this story often ends. Gaethje hurts them, he gets tired or over-aggressive, and then… he gives up his back. It happened against Charles Oliveira. It happened against Khabib.
So, how do we bet the high-value underdog without sweating bullets every time they hit the mat?
We use the “Main Card Money Hedge.”
📊 The “Danger” Data: Why We Hedge
Paddy Pimblett is not a world-class wrestler, but he is a world-class opportunist.
Justin Gaethje’s historical weakness has always been the transition game; two of his five losses have come via submission when he gets rocked or tired. Conversely, Paddy doesn’t need to dominate for five minutes. He just needs one chaotic scramble to sink in a Rear Naked Choke or Triangle.
If Gaethje loses this fight, it is almost certainly going to be via Submission. It is very unlikely Paddy out-points him on the feet for 25 minutes.
🛡️ The Strategy: The 70/30 Split
Instead of putting 100% of your stack on Gaethje, we are going to split the bet to create a safety net.
The Odds (Estimated):
- Justin Gaethje to Win: +175
- Paddy Pimblett by Submission: +180
The Setup (Example $100 Bankroll):
- The Primary Bet ($70): Justin Gaethje Moneyline (+175).
- If Gaethje wins: You profit $122.50.
- Total Payout: $192.50.
- The Hedge Bet ($30): Paddy Pimblett by Submission (+180).
- If Paddy subs him: You profit $54.
- Total Payout: $84.
The Result: You lose your $70 Gaethje bet, but get $84 back from the hedge. You essentially break even (minus the cost of a beer), living to fight another day. But if Gaethje gets the KO, you win big. The only way you lose both bets is if Paddy wins by KO or Decision, which is statistically the least likely outcome.
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🚀 The “High Risk” Hedge: Round Specifics
If you want to keep more profit on the Gaethje side and don’t mind a little more risk, you can attack the Round Props.
Paddy usually hunts for the finish early before the sweat makes submissions slippery. The “Club and Sub” special here is betting Paddy by Submission in Round 1 or 2, which usually pays around +400.
By taking these longer odds, you only need to bet about $15 to cover a $60 loss. This leaves you with more money to put on the main Gaethje bet. The risk is obvious—if Paddy subs him in Round 4, your hedge fails—but the reward maximizes your ROI if Gaethje gets the job done.
🏁 Final Verdict
Don’t let your ego bankrupt you. We all want Gaethje to land that left hook and cash the +175 ticket. But this is MMA. Necks get exposed.
The smartest play is to take the Gaethje Moneyline, but sprinkle 0.5 units on Paddy by Submission. It’s the best insurance policy you can buy for UFC 324.
Official Hedge Pick: Paddy Pimblett by Submission (+180)
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