UFC 326 Full Card Predictions & Official Picks: Prelims to Main Event

Fight night is officially upon us, and the energy surrounding the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is absolutely electric. UFC 326 isn’t just another numbered event; it marks a monumental shift for the sport as the promotion makes its highly anticipated debut on CBS, simulcasting the main card alongside Paramount+.

All week long, we have been breaking down the betting lines, hunting for the best sportsbook promos, and building our high-value parlays. But now that the weigh-ins are done and the cage doors are ready to lock, it is time to lay our cards on the table.

In this comprehensive breakdown, I am giving you my official straight-up predictions for the UFC 326 main card, along with a few highlighted picks from the preliminary action. We are looking beyond the hype and focusing purely on the stylistic matchups, cardio advantages, and historical data. Let’s dive into the picks.

Preliminary Card Highlights: Finding the Early Value

Before the CBS broadcast kicks off, the early prelims on Paramount+ are stacked with international talent and veterans fighting for their spots on the roster. These bouts often set the tone for the night, and there are two matchups in particular that stand out.

Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight)

This is a fight we highlighted heavily in our parlay building guide, and the narrative remains the same. It is always tough to fade a legend like former champion Cody “No Love” Garbrandt, but sharp betting requires separating emotion from analysis. Garbrandt’s chin has been severely compromised over the last few years, and his reaction time simply isn’t what it used to be. Across the cage, Xiao Long brings a relentless, high-pressure style that historically gives aging counter-strikers absolute fits. Ultimately, I expect Xiao Long to push a ferocious pace, back Garbrandt against the fence, and overwhelm him with volume.

• Official Pick: Xiao Long wins by TKO (Round 2).

Su Mudaerji vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar (Flyweight)

This is your classic striker-versus-grappler dynamic. The “Tibetan Eagle” Su Mudaerji brings incredibly explosive Muay Thai and a massive reach advantage to the flyweight division. Aguilar, on the other hand, relies heavily on his chain wrestling to drag opponents to the mat. While Aguilar is dangerous early, Mudaerji boasts a very respectable 68% takedown defense. I expect the Mongolian striker to utilize his footwork, keep this fight out in the open, and pick Aguilar apart from the outside as the Mexican grappler desperately tries to close the distance.

• Official Pick: Su Mudaerji wins by Unanimous Decision.

The Main Card: Blockbuster Matchups

When the lights go down for the main broadcast, we are looking at five fights that are practically guaranteed to deliver violence. Here is how I see the main card shaking out.

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight)

This fight is an absolute powder keg, and as I mentioned in our dedicated breakdown earlier this week, the judges can take a smoke break. This is a rematch of a 2023 bout where Ferreira shocked the world by flatlining Rodrigues in the first round. However, “Robocop” is the much more technical striker, and I believe he learned his lesson from that first encounter. Ferreira has nuclear power, but his gas tank empties very quickly if he cannot find the early finish. I expect Rodrigues to survive a very tense opening three minutes, let “The Hulk” empty his cardio reserves, and then swarm him against the cage for a violent revenge finish.

• Official Pick: Gregory Rodrigues wins by TKO (Round 2).

Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson (Lightweight)

Two seasoned southpaws with a combined 57 UFC appearances—this is the “people’s main event.” Dober is the all-time lightweight knockout king, but his aggressive, forward-marching style means he eats a lot of damage to land his own. At 39 years old, Michael Johnson has completely reinvented himself. He is fighting with a brilliant, outside-boxing style, utilizing a lightning-fast jab and superior footwork. While Dober brings the chaos, Johnson has the technical defense (and a vital three-inch reach advantage) to keep this fight at his preferred range. Expect a bloody, highly competitive chess match where Johnson’s veteran composure wins the day.

• Official Pick: Michael Johnson wins by Unanimous Decision.

Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight)

This generational clash is fascinating. While we noted in our parlay guide that the sharp money and prop value is sitting heavily on the 21-year-old Rosas Jr. finding a submission, my official straight-up prediction leans toward the veteran. Font possesses arguably the best jab in the bantamweight division, acting as a “reset button” that stops aggressive grapplers dead in their tracks. Rosas is going to shoot early and often, but Font’s 71-inch reach and lateral movement should allow him to avoid the cage-clinch where Rosas thrives. If Font survives the early grappling scares, his surgical boxing will out-point the youngster over fifteen minutes.

• Official Pick: Rob Font wins by Unanimous Decision.

Caio Borralho vs. Reinier de Ridder (Middleweight)

In the co-main event, we have the ultimate stylistic anchor. Caio Borralho is perhaps the safest bet on the entire card. Reinier de Ridder is a phenomenal submission specialist, but his entire offensive system requires getting the fight to the floor. Unfortunately for the “Dutch Knight,” Borralho boasts a flawless 100% takedown defense rate inside the Octagon. The Brazilian “Fighting Nerd” is highly tactical; he will comfortably stuff De Ridder’s takedown attempts and use his crisp southpaw striking to dominate the stand-up exchanges. It won’t be a reckless brawl, but rather a methodical dismantling.

• Official Pick: Caio Borralho wins by Unanimous Decision.

The Main Event: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2

Over a decade after their first encounter, the BMF title is on the line. Max Holloway enters as the favorite, and rightfully so. He is the volume king of the UFC, capable of drowning opponents in an avalanche of punches while maintaining an unbreakable cardio pace.

Charles Oliveira is the ultimate wildcard. He absorbs a high amount of significant strikes, but he only needs a single mistake to wrap up a submission. If this fight hits the mat, the tension in the arena will be palpable. However, Holloway’s takedown defense is elite (83%), and his legendary chin has never failed him in the lightweight division.

Ultimately, this comes down to discipline versus chaos. I expect Oliveira to land some heavy counter-shots and perhaps create a few terrifying scrambles, but he simply cannot match Holloway’s output over 25 minutes. “Blessed” will use his footwork, keep his back off the fence, and utilize his boxing to frustrate the Brazilian, retaining the BMF title in a grueling, beautiful war.

• Official Pick: Max Holloway wins by Unanimous Decision.

Jake’s Final Thoughts

UFC 326 is shaping up to be a historic night for the sport. If you are placing your bets tonight, remember to stick to your bankroll management rules. Keep your heavy wagers on your straight picks and anchor legs, and save your fractional units for those wild prop parlays.

If you haven’t locked in your slips yet, head over to BetOnline for the sharpest live-betting odds, or check out BetUS to claim that massive 125% welcome bonus before the main card begins. Enjoy the fights, and let’s cash some tickets!