UFC 323 closes out the year with a high-stakes bantamweight title rematch as Merab Dvalishvili defends his belt against Petr Yan. The fight lands on Saturday, December 6, 2025, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas and offers one of the clearest betting storylines of the season: a relentless, wrestling-heavy champion versus a precise, dangerous striker seeking revenge.
This preview breaks down the odds, smart picks, prop ideas, and how to approach betting on the main event. Read on for a simple, practical guide to wagering on Dvalishvili vs Yan 2.
Early Odds Snapshot
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Merab Dvalishvili (Champion): -400 (Favorite)
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Petr Yan: +300 (Underdog)
These lines make Dvalishvili the strong favorite, reflecting his championship form and nonstop pressure. Yan’s price offers value for bettors who back his boxing and fight IQ to change the script.
Fighter Breakdown
Merab Dvalishvili — The Pressure Machine
Dvalishvili’s style is simple and effective: constant forward motion, stubborn wrestling, and very high pace. He grinds opponents down with takedowns, top control, and relentless activity. His cardio and fight tempo often force mistakes and open the door for long, score-heavy wins. Dvalishvili thrives in five-round fights where pressure accumulates.
Path to victory: Close the distance early, force takedowns or clinch control, and win rounds through top time and volume. Best route: Decision or late stoppage from ground-and-pound.
Petr Yan — The Sharp Counterpuncher
Yan is a technical striker with fast hands, sharp counters, and an ability to capitalize on openings. He mixes combinations with smart movement and timing. Yan’s punching power and experience as a former champion make him dangerous anytime the fight is standing.
Path to victory: Keep the fight upright, land counter shots during level changes, and score a late TKO or knockout when Dvalishvili tires or overcommits.
Expert Predictions & Best Bets
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Safe Pick: Merab Dvalishvili by Decision. Dvalishvili controls pace and time, making a points win the most likely outcome across five rounds. This is the lowest-variance play.
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Value Pick: Petr Yan by KO/TKO. Yan’s best path is a standing finish. The underdog price gives solid upside if you expect a short window for striking exchanges.
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Upset Pick: Yan by Decision. If Yan manages distance and avoids lengthy scrambles, he can collect rounds through cleaner striking and counters.
For bettors who favor low risk, the champion on the cards is sensible. If you chase bigger returns, Yan’s knockout potential is the ticket.
Prop Bets to Consider
| Bet Type | Prediction | Why It’s Worth a Look |
|---|---|---|
| Fight to go the distance — No | Moderate value | Both men have finish ability; under 3.5–4.5 rounds lines may be attractive early. |
| Dvalishvili by Decision | Favorite pick | He controls rounds with pace and grappling; high probability over five rounds. |
| Yan by KO/TKO | High upside | Yan has game-ending shots if he times entries or counters. |
| Round-specific finish (Rounds 2–4) | Good value | Momentum swings and fatigue often decide mid-fight. |
Always shop multiple sportsbooks for the best prop prices.
Betting Tips & Strategy
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Watch weigh-ins and media day. Look for how Yan reacts to fight week and how Dvalishvili looks physically. A bad-looking fighter can move lines quickly.
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Focus on in-play options. If Dvalishvili fails to secure early takedowns, live odds on Yan will improve — a strong spot for value bets.
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Avoid heavy parlays with this card. The bantamweight rematch has many variables; single bets or small combos are safer.
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Size your stakes. With a clear favorite, don’t overcommit to longshots; allocate a small portion of your bankroll to higher-risk Yan bets.
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Compare lines. Different books will price the methods and rounds differently — shop to capture the best number.
Where to Bet
Use reputable sportsbooks that cover big UFC events and offer good prop markets. Popular options include major global books and regulated regional platforms. If you’re betting in the U.S., use licensed operators; international bettors should choose well-known sites with strong reputation and fast payouts.
Final Thoughts
Dvalishvili vs Yan 2 is a classic matchup of style vs skill. Dvalishvili’s pressure and wrestling make him the logical favorite and the safer bet on the scorecards. But Petr Yan’s counterstriking and finishing power keep the outcome uncertain — and create real value for bettors willing to back a well-timed upset.
If you prefer steady returns, take Dvalishvili by Decision. If you want bigger payout potential, consider a small stake on Yan by KO/TKO or a live bet if the fight opens standing. Either way, this rematch promises tactical shifts, high drama, and betting moments worth watching closely.
