How to Bet on UFC by Method of Victory (Beginner’s Guide)

When it comes to UFC betting, there’s more to it than just picking who will win the fight. One of the most popular and potentially rewarding options is betting by Method of Victory — predicting how a fighter will win, not just if they win. This market can offer much better odds than standard moneyline bets and gives you a chance to use your fight knowledge for bigger profits.

Whether you’re a die-hard UFC fan or just starting to bet on MMA, understanding the different ways a fight can end — and knowing when to bet on each outcome — can give you a serious edge on fight night.

What Does “Method of Victory” Mean in UFC Betting?

The “Method of Victory” (MOV) market lets you bet on the exact way a fighter will win a match. Instead of just saying “Fighter A will win,” you predict the specific outcome, such as:

• Fighter A wins by KO/TKO

• Fighter B wins by Submission

• Fighter A wins by Decision

To win your bet, both parts must be correct: the fighter must win and they must do it in the way you predicted. This makes MOV bets a bit riskier — but it also makes the payouts higher.

Here’s a real example:

• Let’s say Jon Jones is fighting and you think he’ll dominate on the ground.

• Instead of just betting on him to win (at -300), you bet on Jones by Submission (at +300).

• If he taps out his opponent, you get a much bigger return on your bet.

Common Method of Victory Betting Options

Most sportsbooks (like DraftKings, Bet365, or FanDuel) will offer these standard MOV outcomes for both fighters:

✅ Win by KO/TKO

• This means the fighter wins by knocking out their opponent, forcing the referee to stop the fight due to strikes.

• Also includes technical knockouts (TKOs), where the opponent can’t defend themselves.

• Fighters known for knockout power — like Alex Pereira, Derrick Lewis, or Sean O’Malley — often have strong value in this category.

✅ Win by Submission

• A win by submission happens when one fighter forces the other to tap out or go unconscious (e.g., choke, armbar).

• If you’re betting on grapplers like Charles Oliveira, Islam Makhachev, or Brian Ortega, this option is worth a look.

✅ Win by Decision

• If the fight goes all the scheduled rounds and the winner is determined by the judges’ scorecards, that’s a decision win.

• Technical strikers or wrestlers who control the fight without going for the finish (like Belal Muhammad or Cory Sandhagen) often win by decision.

✅ Draw or Other Outcomes

• A draw is rare but possible if the judges score the fight even.

• Some sportsbooks also offer “Any Other Method” or “Fighter Wins Inside the Distance” for broader coverage.

Why Method of Victory Betting Is So Popular

Better Odds

You’ll usually get significantly better odds on a method of victory bet than on a straight win. For example:

• Islam Makhachev moneyline: -400 (bet $400 to win $100)

• Makhachev by submission: +120 (bet $100 to win $120)

If you’re confident in how a fighter will win, this is a great way to increase your profit.

More Engaging Fight Experience

Instead of just watching to see who wins, you’ll be paying attention to every detail — ground control, striking patterns, cardio — because your bet depends on how they finish the fight.

Leverage Style Matchups

UFC fights are often about styles — striker vs grappler, cardio machine vs power puncher. Method of Victory betting lets you take advantage of your fight IQ and the way certain matchups tend to play out.

How to Predict the Right Method of Victory

To make smart MOV bets, you need to break down the matchup and understand both fighters’ tendencies. Here are the key areas to study before placing your bet:

1. Fighter’s Finishing History

Look at how each fighter usually wins:

• Do they end fights with heavy hands, or are they more likely to outpoint opponents?

• Are most of their wins by KO, submission, or decision?

Example:

• Tom Aspinall has finished nearly all of his wins — most by KO or TKO.

• Merab Dvalishvili, on the other hand, is more of a volume grappler who wins by decision.

Checking UFCStats.com or Sherdog.com can give you a complete picture of how they’ve performed in the past.

2. Opponent’s Weaknesses

Next, study the fighter’s opponent:

• Are they prone to getting knocked out?

• Have they been submitted multiple times in the past?

• Do they tend to gas out in late rounds?

Example:

• If a fighter is facing an opponent who’s been submitted in 3 of their last 5 fights, betting on a submission win becomes very appealing.

3. Fight Length (3 vs. 5 Rounds)

Five-round fights (usually main events or title fights) give more time for a finish. That increases the chances of a KO or submission, especially if one fighter has better cardio.

• In three-round fights, there’s less time, so decision wins are more common.

• In five-round fights, there’s more room for late finishes, especially if one fighter starts slow but breaks down the opponent.

⚙️ Advanced Strategies for Method of Victory Betting

Once you’ve mastered the basics — fighter styles, finishing trends, and opponent weaknesses — you can start incorporating more nuanced strategies to sharpen your bets and improve your long-term success rate.

Style vs. Style Analysis

Certain matchups naturally lean toward specific outcomes:

• Striker vs. Grappler: If the striker has elite takedown defense, you might expect a KO/TKO. But if the grappler gets it to the mat early, a submission is likely.

• Wrestler vs. Volume Striker: If neither has strong finishing power, the decision line might be your best bet.

• Power Puncher vs. Chinny Opponent: This is a classic recipe for a KO win — often offering plus-money odds if timed right.

Use tape study, UFC analytics, and even commentary from analysts to forecast how these style clashes might play out.

Track Fighter Evolution

Fighters change over time. Someone who once finished every opponent might start to play it safe as they rise in rankings. Others may suddenly develop knockout power or sharpen submission skills. Always check:

• Recent performance vs. career averages

• Coaching changes

• Injury comebacks or layoffs

• Late-career mindset shifts (e.g., fighters fighting safe to protect rankings)

Look at Judging Trends

Some fighters — like Sean Strickland or Cory Sandhagen — can dominate with volume but not get finishes. If they’re fighting in a region known for conservative judges, betting decision might be safer than hoping for a finish.

On the flip side, Brazilian cards often favor local fighters in close decisions. Know where the fight is happening and how that location affects scoring and finishes.

Live Betting: Method of Victory In-Play

Some sportsbooks offer live method of victory markets that update as the fight unfolds. These can be very profitable — if you’re paying close attention.

️ What to Look For:

• Momentum Shifts: If a fighter is taking over, but hasn’t finished yet, betting their method live may give better odds than pre-fight.

• Fatigue Signs: A tired opponent is more likely to be finished late in the fight — great for a KO/TKO or submission bet.

• Damage Accumulation: Cuts, swelling, or repeated knockdowns may signal an upcoming finish.

For example, if a fighter starts round 2 looking fresh while the opponent looks gassed, you might grab “Fighter A by KO/TKO” at better odds than before round 1.

Just be quick — sportsbooks adjust lines fast, especially after knockdowns or dominant moments.

⚖️ Pros and Cons of Method of Victory Betting

If you’re looking for value over safety, method of victory is a great tool. But it’s not for every matchup or every bettor — and it definitely requires discipline.

❓Frequently Asked Questions: Method of Victory Betting in UFC

1. What does “Win by KO/TKO” mean in UFC betting?

“Win by KO/TKO” means the fighter wins the match by either knocking out their opponent or forcing the referee to stop the fight due to strikes. It includes:

• Traditional knockouts (opponent is unconscious)

• Technical knockouts (opponent can’t defend themselves)

• Corner stoppages due to strikes

2. Is Method of Victory a good bet for beginners?

It can be — if you do your research. Method of Victory bets offer higher payouts than just picking the winner, but they’re riskier. Beginners should start small and only place these bets when they see clear style advantages (e.g., submission expert vs striker with weak ground defense).

3. Can I combine Method of Victory with other bets in a parlay?

Yes, many sportsbooks allow you to include Method of Victory picks in parlays. However, keep in mind that each leg adds more risk. It’s best to only include MOV bets in parlays when you’re confident in both the winner and the method.

4. What’s the safest Method of Victory option?

There’s no “safe” bet, but Win by Decision is often the most reliable in closely matched fights or when both fighters are durable. However, the odds may be lower than other methods unless you’re betting on an underdog.

5. Do sportsbooks offer Method of Victory live (during the fight)?

Some sportsbooks do — especially for major events. Live MOV betting lets you place bets while the fight is happening, based on what you’re seeing in real time. Odds adjust quickly, so you need to act fast.

6. What happens if the fight ends in a way I didn’t pick?

Your bet loses — even if you picked the correct winner. For example, if you bet on Fighter A by decision and they win by knockout, the bet doesn’t cash. You must correctly predict both the winner and the method.

Final Verdict: Should You Use the Method of Victory Bet?

Absolutely — when the spot is right. Method of victory bets give you the chance to turn detailed fight knowledge into real profit. They offer better odds, more excitement, and are a great way to capitalize on stylistic matchups.

But don’t force it. Some fights are too close to call or don’t present clear finishing paths. And if you’re not sure how a fighter will win, sticking to safer options like double chance bets or outright winners may be smarter.

Bet with your brain, not your heart — and the method of victory market can become one of your sharpest weapons on UFC cards.

✅ Final Checklist Before You Bet

Use this quick list before placing your method of victory bet:

If you checked most or all of these, your bet is probably based on solid logic — not just a hunch.

Watch This Video on How to Bet on UFC by Method of Victory