Every UFC fight night feels electric. The buzz builds all day—fans are hyped, bettors are locked in, and everyone’s got their eyes on the main event. Usually, there’s a clear favorite going in. We check out the weigh-ins, scroll through fight stats, break down styles, and start predicting how it’ll all play out. But let’s be honest—how often does the fighter we think will win actually get their hand raised?
MMA is wild. Anything can happen in the Octagon, and we’ve all seen shocking upsets. Still, there’s a reason why some fighters keep showing up as the favorite. In this piece, we’re digging into just how often those favorites actually win—and why. Whether you’re a die-hard fan or someone looking to place smarter bets, it’s time to explore what makes these fighters so tough to beat.
The Statistical Reality: Favorites Dominate (Mostly)
When we look at the numbers across thousands of UFC fights, the statistics are clear: favorites win the vast majority of the time. On average, UFC favorites secure the victory in approximately 68% to 70% of all bouts.
To put that in perspective, this means that for every 10 fights, the favored fighter wins roughly 7 of them. This is a significant advantage, especially when compared to the underdog win rate, which hovers around 30% to 32%. While the allure of a big payout from an underdog upset is undeniable, the statistics show that betting on the favorite is, on paper, the more statistically reliable choice.
Oddsmakers, the experts who set the betting lines, are incredibly skilled at what they do. Their job is to predict the most likely outcome, and the historical data confirms their accuracy. The odds they set for favorites often closely reflect the actual probability of that fighter winning, making the favorite a strong indicator of who is expected to perform.
It’s also interesting to note that the stronger the favorite (meaning their odds are very low, like -400 or -500), the higher their win rate tends to be. These heavy favorites are considered dominant for a reason, and they often deliver on those expectations.
Why Favorites Often Win: Factors Contributing to Their Success
So, what makes a fighter a favorite, and why do they so consistently live up to that expectation? It’s a combination of tangible skills, meticulous preparation, and often, an intangible mental edge.
1. Superior Skill Set
Favorites often possess a more complete and polished skillset. They’re not just good at one thing; they excel in multiple areas of mixed martial arts. This means they can:
Exhibit a Well-Rounded Game: They can strike effectively, defend takedowns, execute their own takedowns, and threaten with submissions. This versatility makes them incredibly difficult to prepare for and exploit.
Demonstrate Technical Proficiency: They often have higher striking accuracy, better defense against incoming attacks, and more effective grappling transitions, allowing them to control the pace and flow of a fight.
2. Experience and Pedigree
Many favorites have climbed the ranks for a reason. Their journey often includes:
Championship Experience: Fighters who have consistently performed at the highest level, especially in title fights, have proven they can handle immense pressure and deliver when it matters most.
Proven Track Record: They’ve built a history of consistently beating top-tier opponents, which validates their position as the more skilled and reliable fighter.
3. Physical Attributes & Preparation
Behind every favorite’s success is often a rigorous commitment to physical excellence and smart preparation:
Athletic Advantage: They frequently possess superior speed, explosive power, or exceptional athleticism for their division, giving them a natural edge.
Optimal Training Camps: Favorites typically have access to the best coaches, specialized training partners, and cutting-edge resources, ensuring they are in peak physical and mental condition for fight night.
Consistent Weight Cuts: Managing weight effectively is crucial in MMA. Favorites often have a disciplined approach to their weight cut, ensuring they are at their strongest and healthiest when they step into the octagon.
4. Strategic Game Planning
Beyond raw talent, intelligence plays a huge role:
Adaptability: The best favorites can adjust their tactics during a fight, responding to their opponent’s strengths and exploiting new opportunities as the bout unfolds.
Exploiting Weaknesses: Their coaching teams often meticulously study opponents to identify and target vulnerabilities, crafting a game plan designed for maximum effectiveness.
5. Momentum and Confidence
The psychological aspect cannot be overstated:
Winning Streaks: Fighters on a roll often carry significant momentum and confidence into their fights, believing they are unbeatable. This positive mindset can translate into dominant performances.
Mental Edge: Being the perceived better fighter can give a favorite a psychological advantage, sometimes causing an underdog to doubt themselves or feel overwhelmed.
6. Favorite Performance Across Divisions
Interestingly, the win rate for favorites isn’t exactly the same across all UFC weight classes. Some divisions tend to see favorites win more often than others:
Flyweight and Bantamweight divisions often show a slightly higher favorite win rate. This could be due to the technical nature of these lighter weight classes, where small skill advantages can be more pronounced.
Conversely, divisions like Featherweight might see favorites win slightly less frequently, suggesting a higher potential for upsets due to the depth of talent or the nature of the matchups.
When it comes to title fights versus non-title fights, favorites in championship bouts tend to have an even higher win rate. This makes sense, as these are often the most dominant champions or highly skilled challengers who have proven their mettle against the best.
Betting on Favorites: Strategies and Considerations
For bettors, understanding the consistent success of favorites is crucial. While they win more often, the payouts are typically lower because the risk is perceived to be less. This leads to specific betting strategies:
The “Safe” Bet (with lower payouts): Betting on a favorite is generally considered a safer option, but don’t expect to get rich quickly. A $100 bet on a -200 favorite will only net you $50 profit if they win.
Finding Value in Favorites: It’s not about betting on every favorite. The smart play is to look for situations where a favorite’s odds might still offer decent value – meaning their true chance of winning is even higher than what the odds suggest. Comparing odds across different regulated sportsbooks can help you find these opportunities.
Beyond Moneyline: To increase potential payouts when betting on favorites, consider other bet types:
- Method of Victory: Betting on a favorite to win by KO/TKO or submission often offers better odds than just picking them to win outright.
- Round Betting: Predicting a favored fighter to win in a specific round can also significantly boost your potential returns.
Parlays: Combining multiple favorite bets into a parlay can lead to much higher payouts. However, remember that if even one leg of your parlay loses, the entire bet is lost, so this strategy comes with increased risk.
Avoiding “Public Money” Traps: Sometimes, a favorite’s odds can become inflated (less valuable) because too many people are betting on them. This is often called “public money.” Smart bettors look for situations where the odds might be skewed by popular opinion rather than true probability.
Responsible Betting: Even with favorites, upsets happen. Always emphasize setting limits for yourself and managing your bankroll responsibly. Betting should be for entertainment, not as a guaranteed source of income.
Conclusion: The Backbone of UFC Betting
To wrap it up, favorites usually live up to the hype in the UFC. They win about two out of every three fights, thanks to better skills, smart game plans, and strong preparation. That’s what gives them the edge inside the cage.
Sure, we all love a good underdog story—but when it comes to consistency, favorites are the real deal. For fans, it’s a reminder of just how high-level these athletes are. And for bettors, it’s a chance to make smarter picks by understanding what makes a fighter more likely to win.
So tell us—who’s your favorite “favorite” to bet on?
